Forecasting The Future

David Goldsmith

Selecting conference topics that appeal to target markets always a challenge.

Often we look backwards

We look to the past for best practices

We even look for bench marking practices.

These don't prepare people for the future.

They tend to have people copy the past.

Innovation gets lost. And we need more innovation.

Challenges your organization is facing today are a result of decisions from the past.

Current situation is a
product of past decision making.

We must become more interested in how to forecast how current decisions produce the greatest
opportunities for the future.

What will the water profession be like in one, two, three or five years?

There is always room for improvement.

We need right thinking tools to do better.

Forecast what water professional colleagues need for the future.

Launch our thinking forward

Make anticipatory decisions for our organizations.

Mental high beams look everywhere down the road

Forward-oriented forecasters spend their strategic thinking living mentally in the future.

Cycles

Cycles

• seasonal
• biological
• economical

Trends

Trends

• Human behaviors
• Community behaviors
• Travel
• Religious

Patterns

Patterns

• Short or long term
• Limited or unlimited in scope
• Repeatable or one-offs

Forecasting Triggers

Forecasting Triggers

• Your perspective
• Your organization's perspective
• Your customers
• Your vendors

Forecasting Triggers

• Your competition
• Your community
• Your region
• Your state

Triggers To Consider

Triggers To Consider

• Geopolitics Infrastructure Weather Food Real Estate Agriculture Urbanism

Triggers To Consider

• Family Production Economy Financial Climate Energy

Triggers To Consider

• Wealth Regulation & oversight Language Travel Seasons

Identifying Forward-Focused Topics

• Separate your group into smaller groups.

Identifying Forward-Focused Topics

• Separate your group into smaller groups.
• them a random set of triggers to explore

Identifying Forward-Focused Topics

• Separate your group into smaller groups.
• Assign them a random set of triggers to explore
• Collect projections about these triggers & extrapolate future conditions, events, influences

Collect Projections

• What are the futures of geopolitics and community?

Collect Projections

• What are the futures of geopolitics and community?
• How will these triggers impact the water profession?

Collect Projections

• Note: Group may struggle with this. Let them! Tell them to think and give it a try first.

Identifying Forward-Focused Topics

• 4. Bring groups together and share a summary of their findings, insights, thoughts

Identifying Forward-Focused Topics

• 5. Collectively vote on the top three to six ideas.

Identifying Forward-Focused Topics

• 6. Compare to the topics you currently have submitted and if none submitted, ask about who would be able to address these subjects.

A Retro Forecasting Model reviews stats, the past and guess what it means for tomorrow.

These people insist that the old way is better.

This model causes you to play catch up!

A Current Forecasting Model causes you to spend half your time looking at the present.

Spend half your time looking at the present & then equal amounts of time in the past and future.

Only looks at conditions as they currently exist.

Does not cause you to fall behind. However, does not stretch your thinking far enough into the future to consider long-term opportunities.

Forward-oriented forecasters spend their strategic thinking mentally in the future.