Demographic Transition

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION Model

STAGE 1-Pre Modern

• Hunter-gatherer phase
• Life is tough
• "Pre" EVERYTHING
• Low food production
• War and disease

Stage 1: Graph

• High CBR & CDR
• Life expectancy is low
• Total population is low
• TFR is high
• IMR is low

STAGE 2: Urbanizing

• Agricultural revolution increased food production and stable farmers
• People live in rural areas that get bigger over years
• Increased technology due to Industrial Revolution
• Better health and sanitation and machines are making machines
• However, still the mentality of Stage 1

Stage 2: Graph

• HUGE increase in population
• CBR is high & CDR plummets
• TFR is high because kids are assets for agriculture
• Life expectancy is high
• IFR is low

Stage 3: Mature Industrial

• Continuation of Stage 2, but better
• Farming is going away, and factories is increasing
• More than 50% live in cities and towns because that is where the "stuff" is
• Increased food production and HUGE advances in medical advantages
• Higher education (especially in women) = the fertility rate goes down

Stage 3: Graph

• CBR plummets & CDR falls slowly
• Cultural lag = population boom
• Life expectancy is high and IMR is low
• Overall population is increasing
• TFR plummets because kid AREN'T an asset anymore

STAGE 4: Post Industrial

• More of a modern work settings (E.g. offices, hospitals, companies)
• Mostly all people live in urban areas 70%-90%
• Decreased industrial work such as factories, coal mining, etc.
• High technology, and new tech is invented
• Life is amazing

Stage 4: Graph

• CBR is low and CDR is low
• Stable population growth, however is high
• TFR is very low
• Life expectancy is high

Stage 5: ???

• Possible???
• CDR doesn't get lower
• CBR is decreasing below CDR
• The replacement level is low
• Population is shrinking