DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

WHAT IS THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION?

• Demographic = study of people
• Transition = change over time
• The change of people from uncivilized to civilized (undeveloped to developed)
• Every country wants to transform into a developed region

KEY TERMS

• Birth rate- # of babies born per 1000 people
• Death rate- # of deaths per 1000 people
• Infant mortality rate- # of babies who will die before their 1st birthday, per every 1000 babies born
• Longevity/life expectancy- average age people will live to
• Fertility rate- average # of babies born to a woman over her lifetime

KEY TERMS (CONT.)

• Replacement level- the fertility rate required to keep a population stable
• Demographic transition model- societal evolution broken down into 4 stages based on demographic attributes. Takes birth rate, death rate, etc. into consideration.

STAGE 1: PRE-MODERN

• Pre-civilization
• Hunter/gatherer phase
• Nomadic phase
• Pre-agricultural
• Life is hard

STAGE 1: PRE-MODERN (CONT.)

• Some years are good, others aren't as good
• High birth rate
• High death rate
• Low population total
• Very high fertility rate

STAGE 1: PRE-MODERN (CONT.)

• Very high infant mortality rate
• Low life expectancy
• Very rare nowadays

STAGE 2: URBANIZING/INDUSTRIALIZING

• Agriculture invented
• Farming started
• More food production
• Industrialization
• Factory workers

STAGE 2: URBANIZING/INDUSTRIALIZING (CONT.)

• Most live in rural areas
• Few in urban areas
• Life is easier than before
• Everything is more stable
• Longer life expectancy

STAGE 2: URBANIZING/INDUSTRIALIZING (CONT.)

• Less disease
• More medical breakthroughs
• Increased safety standards
• No longer affected as much by nature
• Birth rate still high; yet stable

STAGE 2: URBANIZING/INDUSTRIALIZING (CONT.)

• Death rate plummets
• Much lower infant mortality
• Population MUCH higher
• Fertility rate still high (need them on farm/factory)
• Examples- Africa, Vietnam, Guatemala, etc.

STAGE 3: MATURE INDUSTRIAL

• Continuation of stage 2
• But ramped up even more
• Less farmers (more agriculture)
• More jobs in other areas (job specialization)
• Most people live in big cities

STAGE 3: MATURE INDUSTRIAL (CONT.)

• Life is even better now
• Examples of countries beginning this stage:
• Africa, Asia, Middle East
• Examples of countries ending this stage:
• Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, China

STAGE 4: POST INDUSTRIAL

• Almost no one farming anymore
• Decreased factory work
• More automation
• More jobs in the service sector:
• Teacher, sales, office job, etc.

STAGE 4: POST INDUSTRIAL (CONT.)

• 70-80% of people live in cities
• Lots of technology
• New technology being developed
• Both birth and death rates are very low
• Stable population growth

STAGE 4: POST INDUSTRIAL (CONT.)

• Very high life expectancy
• Examples:
• USA, UK, Europe, Singapore
• Australia, UAE, etc.
• Rich countries

STAGE 5: FUTURE?

• Death rates stay the same
• Birth rates decrease each year
• Death rate > birth rate
• Population is shrinking
• Beginning to occur in Russia, Japan, Italy, etc.

CONCLUSION

• Total population is low, but begins increasing very fast at stage 2 and keeps going a bit at stage 3.
• Stable at stage 4 and starts to go down in stage 5.
• Increasing urbanization, industrialization, education, health care, technology, life expectancy, etc.
• Decreasing infant mortality, and ultimately fertility rate.