LEARNING OBJECTIVES

• Students define conditional probability in their own words.
• Students will give real life examples or scenarios of conditional probability.
• Students will explain independent and dependent events.
• Students will be able to solve real life probability problems.
• HS.DR.E.15 Data Reasoning and Probability

MATERIALS

• Teacher Doc Cam
• Google slides or HaikuDeck
• Current curriculum students use (workbooks?)
• Exit ticket.

INTRODUCTION

• Connect the student to the topic using daily instances of how probability affects their own life.
• Ask if anyone knows what probability is…then discuss.
• Examples like weather forecasts, sports outcomes, cards, or predictions of sales etc.
• Discuss the term conditional probability: the probability of event A happening given that another event B has already occurred.

STUDENT EXAMPLES

• Ask students to pair up and think of one example of a dependent event.
• What are the chances of having to run extra laps if you are late to practice. What are the chances ice cream sales will be high or low depending on the cold/hot weather.

EXPLORATION OF EXAMPLES

• Present multiple examples of conditional probability in everyday life.
• For each example have students discuss how the additional information changes the probability of the outcome compared to if that information wasn’t known.
• Introduce independent and dependent events after this discussion.

POSSIBLE EXAMPLES

• Will it rain today: cloudy vs sunny.
• Your score on a test if you study hard or don’t study.
• Dominant hand knowing or not knowing parents dominate hand.
• How successful a team will be given the amount of off season practice (or not).

PROBLEM SOLVING

• Start with easy probability problems that involve independent and dependent events.
• I do, we do, you do.
• For the first couple problems guide students through the process of identifying the events, determining if they are independent/dependent and draw out the numbers from the question and calculate.

Problems could include: dice, marbles, cards, data graphs, music play lists, or surveys to name a few.

SMALL GROUP ACTIVITY

• Divide students into small groups or in partners and have them work on more complex problems.
• Depending on student population maybe play a game (cards, dice, etc.)

QUICK REVIEW/ASSESSMENT

• Review the key concepts of conditional probability and independent/dependent events.
• Ask students to explain the differences between the two in their own words.
• Distribute a quiz or exit ticket to check for understanding.

DIFFERENTIATION

• Students who need more support might need simpler problems or more practice. Break down the steps and use more visuals.
• For more skilled students give more challenging problems that require out of the box thinking or have them give their own examples.

ASSESSMENT

• Teacher observation of students during discussions.
• Review student workbook or quiz.
• Exit ticket or student examples.