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employment, recession, recovery

Published on Dec 23, 2015

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PRESENTATION OUTLINE

employment, recession, recovery

mr. melkonian

labour force

all people working and actively seeking work
Photo by Jer Kunz

stats can figures this out

randomly asks houses about employment
Photo by net_efekt

employment rate calculation

(#employed/labour force) X 100 

unemployment rate

people not-working but looking for a job-includes temporary layoffs

seasonally adjusted rate

gets rid of short-term fluctuations

labour force includes everyone except...

  • Full-time military personnel
  • Inmates
  • Full-time students
  • Retired workers
  • Homemakers

participation rate

not counting people who aren't participating

(total labour/ total employable) x 100

Photo by lafrancevi

higher participation is good for a country!

it means more people are producing to aggregate production

limitations of employment data

Three main calculation issues

  • underemployment
  • discouraged workers
  • dishonesty

underemployment

Photo by martinak15

unemployment rate understates

the true level of unemployment-includes part timers!

phd cab drivers

full education/skill not used

discouraged workers

stopped looking - gave up

hidden unemployed

underemployed/discouraged should have their own group
Photo by Ford Europe

official unemployment rate would go up

by a lot... maybe up to 70%, i'd say even more

dishonesty

people are straight liars... they say they're looking...

Frictional unemployment

  • short-term unemployment, in between jobs or getting back in
  • take time off to raise kids
  • quit your job for something higher paying
  • switch to something more suitable for you
  • least worrisome/serious one

seasonal unemployment

  • climate change
  • construction, lumber, fishing, farming, tourism
  • not as bad as it was before- science breh
  • seasonal adjustments in calculation too

structural unemployment

  • changes in the economy
  • some industries grow, some obsolete overnight
  • skills become irrelevant/obsolete

technological unemployment

replace people with machines

replacement unemployment

move labour to a cheaper country

cyclical unemployment

  • business cycles (economic decline/boom)
  • inadequate demand unemployment - people want less stuff so you fire staff
  • sometimes government influences this- raised interest rates, etc.

full employment

not everyone can work-best we can hope for

natural employment rate

highest reasonable expectation of employment (full employment)

sometimes includes structural/frictional unemployment

excludes cyclical and seasonal

Cyclical excluded since it can be controlled by stabilizing downturns/upswings of the business cycle. It shouldn't really happen...

Seasonal is automatically excluded form all seasonally adjusted data

cost of unemployment